摩根大通 中国汽车行业分析报告 2012.03.01

lzh0216

Asia Pacific Equity Research
01 March 2012

Table of Contents
Part one: FY11E results preview for China autos..................3
Part two: Three investment risks ............................................9
(1) Rising competitive pressure in the medium and low end SUV segment ...............9
(2) China’s low- and medium-end auto producers may suffer from margin erosion
once the latest round of auto JVs’ capacity expansion comes on stream..................12
(3) Self-branded electric car requirement may hurt China autos' near term earnings 16
Part three: one investment opportunity in China autos–
luxury car segment the only bright spot ..............................17
Companies
Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd............................................................................30
Baoxin Auto Group Limited ..................................................................................33
China ZhengTong Auto Service Holding Limited ..................................................36
Brilliance China Automotive .................................................................................39
Qingling Motors Co ..............................................................................................42
Guangzhou Automobile Group Co. Ltd..................................................................45
Minth Group .........................................................................................................48
Sinotruk................................................................................................................51
Great Wall Motor Company Limited .....................................................................54
Weichai Power......................................................................................................57
DongFeng Motor Co., Ltd. ....................................................................................60