元大證券最新嬰兒用品產業報告 (英文版) - 2012年7月3

累土

儿童用品行业将受以下原因推动：1 ）出生于第三次婴儿潮的人群已步入黄金生育期，今年将是新一轮婴儿潮的开端，此轮婴儿潮的父母基本出生于上世纪80年代，可支配收入普遍较高；及2 ）家庭在儿童用品方面的支出不断增加；中国儿童用品支出比重仍低于欧美水平。
Table of contents
Executive summary.................................................................................................3
Our stock recommendations...................................................................................4
Year of the Dragon; Year of the Baby.......................................................................5
Children’s product market in China.........................................................................8
The durable juvenile products market...................................................................12
China infant formula industry – volume growth with ASP increases.......................14
Goodbaby International (1086 HK).........................................................18
Investment thesis..................................................................................................19
Valuation...............................................................................................................29
Earnings outlook...................................................................................................33
Cash flow and balance sheet.................................................................................38
Company overview................................................................................................40
Company structure................................................................................................44
Biostime (1112 HK)................................................................................47
Investment thesis..................................................................................................48
Valuation...............................................................................................................50
A leading niche market player in China’s lucrative baby nutrition market..............57
Earnings and operating outlook............................................................................64
Balance sheet and cash flow..................................................................................77
Risks to our investment thesis..............................................................................79
Company overview................................................................................................80