IMS最新的中国医药市场报告

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IMS Market Prognosis 2011-2015
ASIA/AUSTRALIA CHINA

Table of Contents
IMS MARKET PROGNOSIS ..........................................................................................6
MARKET OVERVIEW AND FORECASTS ........................................................................7
MARKET SYNOPSIS ................................................................................................................................ 7
TOTAL MARKET FORECASTS 2011-2015 ................................................................................................... 10
ANALYSIS OF REBATES AND DISCOUNTS ...................................................................................................... 10
SUMMARY OF THE PROGNOSIS .................................................................................................................... 10
HOSPITAL SECTOR OVERVIEW ................................................................................................................ 12
HOSPITAL SECTOR FORECASTS .................................................................................................................... 14
EVENT ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................................. 16
FORECASTING DATA AND METHODS ....................................................................................................... 22
DATA SOURCES ........................................................................................................................................ 22
BASELINE EXTRAPOLATIONS ....................................................................................................................... 22
HOSPITAL SECTOR BASELINE EXTRAPOLATIONS ............................................................................................ 23
ECONOMIC INDICATORS ............................................................................................................................. 24
THERAPEUTIC CLASS FORECASTS ........................................................................................................... 25
IMS MARKET PROGNOSIS REPORT ..........................................................................27
BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT .......................................................................................28
ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT ..................................................................................................................... 28
ECONOMIC GROWTH ................................................................................................................................. 28
INFLATION ............................................................................................................................................... 28
POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT AND INCOMES ................................................................................................... 29
FISCAL POLICY .......................................................................................................................................... 29
MONETARY POLICY .................................................................................................................................... 29
FOREIGN TRADE AND CURRENT ACCOUNT ..................................................................................................... 30
EXCHANGE RATE ....................................................................................................................................... 31
POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT ...................................................................................................................... 33
POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS ........................................................................................................................... 33
CURRENT GOVERNMENT .............................................................................................................................. 33
SOCIAL TENSIONS .................................................................................................................................... 34
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS ........................................................................................................................ 34
HEALTHCARE ENVIRONMENT ...................................................................................36
HEALTHCARE PROVISION ....................................................................................................................... 36
Market Prognosis Scenario 2011-2015: Healthcare Provision ............................................................................ 36
HEALTHCARE SYSTEM ................................................................................................................................ 37
HEALTH STATUS ........................................................................................................................................ 39
HEALTHCARE FINANCING AND EXPENDITURE ................................................................................................ 41
PHARMACEUTICAL EXPENDITURE ................................................................................................................. 42
IMS Market Prognosis Asia/Australia 2011-2015 China 2011
© 2011 IMS Health Incorporated or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 3
HEALTHCARE POLICY ................................................................................................................................. 43
DRUG POLICY ........................................................................................................................................... 45
HEALTH INSURANCE .................................................................................................................................. 46
HOSPITAL SECTOR .................................................................................................................................... 48
HOSPITAL DRUG PROCUREMENT .................................................................................................................. 51
COMMUNITY CARE ..................................................................................................................................... 53
PRESCRIBING AND DISPENSING ............................................................................................................. 54
Market Prognosis Scenario 2011-2015: Prescribing and Dispensing ................................................................... 54
PRESCRIBING INFLUENCES .......................................................................................................................... 54
ESSENTIAL DRUG LIST ............................................................................................................................... 57
NATIONAL REIMBURSEMENT DRUG LIST ....................................................................................................... 58
RURAL REIMBURSEMENT DRUG LIST ............................................................................................................. 60
PATIENT CO-PAYMENT ............................................................................................................................... 60
HOSPITAL FORMULARIES ............................................................................................................................ 61
PRESCRIPTION-ONLY POLICY ....................................................................................................................... 61
SEPARATION OF PRESCRIBING AND DISPENSING ........................................................................................... 61
PRICING ............................................................................................................................................. 63
Market Prognosis Scenario 2011-2015: Pricing ............................................................................................... 63
PRICING SYSTEM ...................................................................................................................................... 63
PRICING POLICY REFORM ............................................................................................................................ 64
PHARMACOECONOMICS .............................................................................................................................. 66
PRICE CUTS .............................................................................................................................................. 67
PRICE TRENDS .......................................................................................................................................... 68
DISCOUNTS AND MARGINS ......................................................................................................................... 68
REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT .................................................................................................................. 70
Market Prognosis Scenario 2011-2015: Regulatory Environment ....................................................................... 70
STATE FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION ................................................................................................... 71
PRODUCT REGISTRATION ............................................................................................................................ 71
CLINICAL TRIALS ...................................................................................................................................... 72
GOOD MANUFACTURING PRACTICE ............................................................................................................... 73
POST-MARKETING SURVEILLANCE ................................................................................................................ 74
MARKETING AND PROMOTION ..................................................................................................................... 74
COUNTERFEITS ......................................................................................................................................... 75
INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY ............................................................................................................................ 75
PHARMACEUTICAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT ........................................................................................... 77
Market Prognosis Scenario 2011-2015: Pharmaceutical Business Environment .................................................... 77
OPERATING ENVIRONMENT ......................................................................................................................... 78
INDUSTRY STRUCTURE ............................................................................................................................... 79
LEADING CORPORATIONS ........................................................................................................................... 80
LEADING PRODUCTS .................................................................................................................................. 82
FOREIGN INVESTMENT ............................................................................................................................... 82
IMS Market Prognosis Asia/Australia 2011-2015 China 2011
© 2011 IMS Health Incorporated or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 4
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT .................................................................................................................... 83
GENERICS MARKET .................................................................................................................................... 84
DISTRIBUTION .......................................................................................................................................... 85
RETAIL PHARMACY .................................................................................................................................... 87
OTC MARKET ............................................................................................................................................ 88
SALES AND MARKETING .............................................................................................................................. 89
APPENDIX A: GLOSSARY .........................................................................................91
APPENDIX B: SOURCES AND METHODS ...................................................................93
COVERAGE .......................................................................................................................................... 93
MARKET FORECASTS ................................................................................................................................. 94
MARKET SEGMENTATION FORECASTS ........................................................................................................... 94
THERAPEUTIC CLASS FORECASTS ................................................................................................................ 94
REGIONAL OVERVIEWS ............................................................................................................................... 95
FORECASTING METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................... 96
TOTAL MARKET FORECASTING PROCESS ....................................................................................................... 96
MARKET SEGMENTATION FORECASTING PROCESS ......................................................................................... 97
THERAPEUTIC CLASS FORECASTING PROCESS ............................................................................................... 99
SOURCES .......................................................................................................................................... 100
PRIMARY AND SECONDARY MARKET RESEARCH ........................................................................................... 100
PHARMACEUTICAL MARKET DATA ............................................................................................................... 100
PHARMACEUTICAL MARKET COVERAGE .................................................................................................. 101
EVENT IMPACT CALCULATION ............................................................................................................... 102
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES .......................................................................................................................... 102
NEW PRODUCT LAUNCHES ......................................................................................................................... 105
CALCULATION OF GENERIC COMPETITION ................................................................................................... 105
USEFUL DEFINITIONS .......................................................................................................................... 107
COMPOUND ANNUAL GROWTH RATE ........................................................................................................... 107
CONSTANT PRICE .................................................................................................................................... 107
LASPEYRES INDEX ................................................................................................................................... 107
STANDARD UNITS ................................................................................................................................... 108
GENERIC DEFINITION USING THE IMS MIDAS MARKET SEGMENTATION FEATURE ............................................ 108
GENERIC DEFINITION WITHOUT THE MARKET SEGMENTATION FEATURE ......................................................... 109

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