J.P._摩根－中国家庭债务评估－中国－金融业－20171129－48页

秋云飞

Table of Contents
Charts talk: turbulent but not a crisis.....................................3
Investment Summary ...............................................................5
Here are our key findings…..................................................................................... 5
Keyconclusions for investment ideas ...................................................................... 7
Household loans in China – an overview ...............................8
Profiling China’s household debt ............................................................................. 8
Quantifying household loans in China ..................................................................... 9
Whyhas household debt increased rapidly in China? ............................................. 11
Understanding the risk profile of various household loans ...................................... 13
Household debt – are we far from a crisis? .........................17
Full-scale household crisis unlikely in the next three years ..................................... 17
But, un-securitized cash lending by non-banks see rising risks .................................... 20
Regulatory risk is high on un-securitized cash lending ........................................... 23
Lenders could be under-provisioned and under-capitalized..................................... 25
Implications of China’s debt problem .................................................................... 27
Implications for Banks ...........................................................28
Bank loans are relatively safe, but beware of contagion risks.................................. 28
Identify ing winners and losers ............................................................................... 28
International experience ........................................................32
Credit crisis of Taiwan .......................................................................................... 32
Credit crisis of Korea ............................................................................................ 33
United Kingdom.................................................................................................... 34
United States ......................................................................................................... 35
Appendix I – Regulations on Micro Lenders and P2P .........37
Appendix II – Workflow of P2P and Micro lending
companies...............................................................................38
P2P (Peer-to-peer lending) .................................................................................... 38
Micro lending companies ...................................................................................... 40
Appendix III: Key data on US credit card industry ..............42