耐火材料行业分析.

kevinli2012

耐火材料行业分析.

目录
1. 耐材行业整体情况与特点 ...................................................................................................................................4
1.1. 耐火材料分类 ...........................................................................................................................................4
1.2. 耐材下游行业需求旺盛.............................................................................................................................5
1.2.1. 钢铁：10 年预期需求1249 万吨 ..................................................................................................6
1.2.2. 玻璃：10 年需求熔铸熔铸氧化铝与中高档熔铸锆刚玉为6752 吨、71504 吨 .......................8
1.2.3. 有色 .............................................................................................................................................10
1.2.4. 水泥 .............................................................................................................................................10
1.3. 耐材上游原材料储备充足，但耐材企业没有定价权 ........................................................................... 11
1.4. 国际耐火材料大型生产商已在国内设厂 ...............................................................................................12
1.5. 我国耐材行业发展迅速，国内企业分3 大类型 ...................................................................................13
1.5.1. 09 年产量增速为33% .................................................................................................................13
1.5.2. 耐材行业主要分为原料基础型、以技术先导型、以及大型钢企附属型 ...............................14
2. 耐材行业成本盈利特点：两高—原材料占比高，毛利高 ..............................................................................15
2.1.1. 成本中原材料占比大：占50%以上 ..........................................................................................15
2.1.2. 毛利率水平高：达30%以上 ......................................................................................................16
3. 行业趋势一：上游整合：上游价格影响毛利，整合存在必要性 ..................................................................17
3.1. 收购原材料可平滑上游价格对公司业绩的影响 ...................................................................................17
3.2. 收购原材料可帮助耐材公司做大做强 ...................................................................................................19
4. 行业趋势二：业内整合：下游整合推动企业数量众多的耐材行业整合 ......................................................19
4.1. 行业内部企业数量众多，低水平重复建设严重 ...................................................................................19
4.2. 耐材行业需要提高技术，增加节能，进行整合 ...................................................................................20
4.3. 下游企业整合将触发耐材行业整合 .......................................................................................................21
4.4. 耐材行业整合现状：濮耐先行一步 .......................................................................................................22
5. 行业趋势三：高档耐材替代落后耐材：鼓励使用不定形、高档熔铸耐材、陶瓷纤维 ..............................22
5.1. 下游行业节能要求促发耐材行业升级 ...................................................................................................22
5.2. 不定形耐火材料 .....................................................................................................................................24
5.3. 高档熔铸耐材 .........................................................................................................................................26
5.4. 陶瓷纤维 .................................................................................................................................................26
6. 行业趋势四：整体承包趋势 ..............................................................................................................................27
7. 行业趋势五：加速成长，拓展海外市场 ..........................................................................................................28
8. 耐材行业公司特点：四家齐鸣 ..........................................................................................................................29
8.1. 四家上市公司特点 .................................................................................................................................29
8.2. 收入规模与盈利能力比较：濮耐规模最大，利尔毛利最高 ...............................................................32
8.3. 成长能力比较：利尔、濮耐成长性确定 ...............................................................................................32
8.4. 费用控制情况：鲁阳费用率最低 ...........................................................................................................33
濮耐股份：上下游并购整合，国内外需求复苏（增持） ......................................................................................34
鲁阳股份：节能优势产品，用途广泛（谨慎增持） ..............................................................................................38
瑞泰科技：10 年产能逐步释放（中性） .................................................................................................................39
北京利尔：成长快，净利润率高（中性） ............................................................................................................41